Canadian Politics

A19(a) - Political Communication, the Media, and Public Opinion

Date: Jun 1 | Time: 01:30pm to 03:00pm | Location: Classroom - CL 232 Room ID: 15735

Chair/Président/Présidente : Louise Cockram (Carleton University)

Discussant/Commentateur/Commentatrice : Thierry Giasson (Université Laval)

Off Message : Ruptures des dynamiques communicationnelles électorales et opinion publique: David Dumouchel (Université de Montréal)
Abstract: L’étude de la préparation électorale des acteurs politiques a connu de belles avancées dans les dernières décennies. Si beaucoup d’attention a été accordée aux considérations stratégiques menant à l’élaboration d’un plan de campagne, on ne peut pas en dire autant des dynamiques de mise en action de ces stratégies. Alors que les récits de campagne montrent souvent une réalité communicationnelle électorale complexe et dynamique, la sagesse populaire intime qu’il serait préférable de respecter la ligne directrice prévue par le plan de campagne (Flanagan, 2014). Cette analyse se propose de revisiter On Message, l’étude de Norris et collègues (1999), en examinant les interactions entre les discours politiques, les médias et l’opinion publique durant la dernière campagne électorale canadienne. Une analyse de contenu automatisée a identifié les agendas des principaux partis et de certains médias de masse. Des données de sondage seront mobilisées afin de disséquer l’évolution de l’opinion publique pendant la campagne. Une analyse temporelle conduite sur ces données identifie certaines périodes de rupture significative dans les séries temporelles, que nous expliquons à partir de concepts de crise et d’opportunité, empruntés à la littérature sur les relations publiques. Nous testerons l’hypothèse voulant que ces périodes se caractérisent par une volatilité plus importante de l’opinion publique, à deux niveaux : 1) dans l’évaluation des acteurs politiques et 2) dans l’identification des enjeux les plus importants de la campagne.

Elephant over the Airwaves: Examining the Influence of American Media on Canadian Political Attitudes: Marc Trussler (Vanderbilt University)
Abstract: Pierre Trudeau likened the Canadian relationship to America as “Sleeping next to an elephant”. As communication technology continues to progress, the easy flow of information across the shared border makes the “elephant” loom larger, increasing the probability of incidental American influence on Canadian politics. The rollout of over-the-air digital television (DTV) provides an opportunity to study a sudden, free, and randomly distributed influx of American media into Canada. I use FCC data on the physical position of American digital-television antennae to estimate, for each federal electoral district, the degree of new exposure to American media expected due to the 2008-2009 mandatory conversion to DTV. To do so, I employ a signal propagation model that considers both distance to the antennae and topography, which together produce a measure of quasi-random measure of exposure. I match this measure to changes in voting outcomes in ridings between the 2009 and 2011 elections, examining whether exogenous exposure to American media in this period affected turnout and vote margins. I expect exposure to American media depresses overall turnout – due to the increase in entertainment options – and decreases vote margins for centrist parties – due to the ideologically polarized nature of American politics. The incidental export of an American style of politics into Canada is a trend expected to continue as American media increases in viewership. This paper provides initial evidence of what this export has already affected, and helps us to make predictions on what can be expected moving forward.

Stories of Asylum at Uncertain Times: Media Narratives of Border Crossings in Quebec and Canada: Sule Tomkinson (Université Laval), Vincent Raynauld (Emerson College)
Abstract: Responding to irregular migration flows is a profound concern in an unstable world. Geographers and legal scholars who take up the issue make two interrelated observations. First, since mass movements often surpass the state capacity to respond to human mobility, the limits of state sovereignty are exposed during these moments of crisis. Second, these high-profile crises enable state actors to advance more restrictive policies and practices. This paper examines how and to what extent conventional journalistic organizations cover these dynamics, shape the public narrative, and can ultimately impact how the public perceives, understands, and reacts to these high-profile moments. In other words, media reporting can affect the structure and tone of the public political discourse and, to some degree, public reactions to the way these situations are handled by the government. In this paper, we take a deep dive into the coverage of migration flows in the province of Quebec. In 2017, the number of asylum seekers entering Quebec tripled compared to 2016. We examine how major Quebec and Canadian news media organizations reported on the arrival and admission of these asylum seekers during an entire year in 2017. We do so through a hybrid quantitative content analysis of articles published in the 6 most-circulated English and French-language newspapers in Canada.